SMECS – Smart Event Forecast for Seaports
- © TU Berlin
Realization of cross-agent prediction and risk management models for a real time reliability management
Due to rising dynamics and complexity in the supply and sales markets, the vulnerability to disruptions in maritime transport networks is increasing. This results in longer reaction times, while the requirements for the delivery service and delivery time are steadily increasing at the same time. Intelligent monitoring and controlling systems which enable an automated identification of disruptions and which provide proactive measures for the involved agents according to a Prescriptive Analytics approach will meet these challenges in an efficient way.
Goal of the project
The research proposal SMECS (Smart Event Forecast for Seaports) contributes to the implementation of agile transport networks by developing a model, which allows a proactive identification of cross-agent disruptions and which provides a goal-oriented risk management. The focus lies on the examination of process events with effects on the ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) within multimodal and international container transports within the port and the hinterland.
The goal of the project is an optimized prediction of delays by integrating all agents of the transport chain as well as to provide suitable alternatives for action in the case of disruptions to increase the efficiency and robustness of planning processes and operations for the entire system.
Starting with a system analysis of the maritime supply chains, process events with a failure potential as well as their causes and effects will be identified and transferred into a suitable model. Operational as well as external factors like weather and traffic will be considered.
With the identification of relevant predictors in the respective data sources and with the application of suitable procedures, a prediction model for real-time ETA calculation in the export traffic will be developed. The focus first lies on train transports and is later being complemented by other freight traffic carriers. By the aggregation of the gathered information, volume flows are predicted which leads to statements about utilization and long term developments.
Due to the subsequent link of potential disruptions and appropriate measures for failure avoidance or reduction of the impact a risk management system will be developed which provides agent-specific alternatives of actions depending on the process events.
Project sponsors and partners
- © IHATEC
Project Executing organisation:
TÜV Rheinland Consulting GmbH
AnsprechpartnerDipl.-Ing. Manuel Weinke
Weinke, Manuel